USDA Lowers Corn and Soybean Production Estimates

By Cassidy Walter Updated on November 14, 2025

Photo: Natalina Sents Bausch

Today, the USDA released the November 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. This was the first WASDE report following the government shutdown. The last report was released in September.

2025/2026 U.S. Crop Production

USDA pegged 2025/2026 corn yield and production estimates lower from the September report but not as low as the average trade expectations.

For soybeans, USDA went a bit lower than the average trade expectations for yield and production estimates.

2025/2026 U.S. Ending Stocks

USDA pegged U.S. corn and wheat ending stocks for 2025/2026 up from September’s report and higher than the average trad expectations. For soybeans, USDA defied expectations by pegging ending stocks lower.

2025/2026 Global Ending Stocks

USDA pegged global corn and soybean ending stocks estimates for 2025/2026 lower when the average trade expectations were for increases. Wheat ending stocks were increased more than expected.

More From USDA

Corn

“This month’s 2025/2026 U.S. corn outlook is for increases in supply, exports, and ending stocks,” USDA said in the report. “Total supply is 144 million bushels higher as larger beginning stocks are partially offset by lower production. Beginning stocks are 207 million bushels higher based on the Sept. 30 Grain Stocks report. Corn production is forecast at 16.8 billion bushels, down 62 million from September on a 0.7-bushel reduction in yield to 186 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain is unchanged at 90 million acres. Total use is up 100 million bushels reflecting a higher export forecast. Exports are raised 100 million bushels to 3.1 billion reflecting shipments to date. Inspection data imply exports set a monthly record during September and again in October. With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are up 44 million bushels to 2.2 billion.”

Soybeans

“U.S. oilseed production for 2025/2026 is projected to reach 125.8 million tons, a decrease of 1 million from the previous estimate,” USDA said. “The reduction is attributed to lower soybean production, although it is partially offset by higher peanut and cottonseed output. Soybean production is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 48 million, on lower yields. The soybean yield is projected down 0.5 bushels to 53 bushels per acre. Soybean supplies are projected to be 61 million bushels lower than the September forecast, due to lower beginning stocks from the Sept. 30 Grain Stocks report and reduced production.

“U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.64 billion bushels, down 50 million from the previous forecast due to lower supplies and higher exports by Brazil and Argentina. In September, Argentina temporarily reduced export taxes leading to an influx of export registrations during the peak U.S. export season. Further, since the last report, the U.S. entered a trade deal with China, which led to higher U.S. prices and narrowed the price spread between [the] U.S. and other major exporters. While U.S. soybean exports are expected to rise to China for the rest of the marketing year, these higher shipments could be offset by reductions to other markets where the U.S. no longer holds a large price discount compared to other exporters.

“U.S. soybean crush is unchanged and ending stocks are forecast down marginally.”

Wheat

Concerning wheat, USDA said: “The outlook for 2025/2026 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies and higher ending stocks, with no change to use. Supplies are raised on greater production, up 58 million bushels to 1.985 billion, on a record all wheat yield based on the Sept. 30 Small Grains Summary.”

ARTICLE: Successful Farmer, November 14, 2025