USDA Raises Production and Stocks Above Trade Expectations

Media Logic Radio
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World ending stocks also forecast higher than expected.

By David Geiger | Published on January 12, 2026

Today, USDA released four major reports: the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), Crop Production 2025 Summary, quarterly Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings reports.

Crop Production 2025 Summary

In the Crop Production 2025 Summary, USDA increased corn yield and production higher than trade expectations. Soybean yield and production were mostly unchanged, both slightly higher than trade expectations.

WASDE

2025/2026 U.S. Ending Stocks

USDA estimated 2025/2026 U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat ending stocks higher month-over-month and well above trade expectations.

2025/2026 Global Ending Stocks

USDA pegged 2025/2026 global ending stocks higher month-over-month in corn, soybeans, and wheat.

2025/2026 Brazil and Argentina Crop Production

USDA placed corn and soybean production estimates for Argentina and Brazil below trade expectations. Corn and soybeans in Brazil and Argentina were unchanged.

Grain Stocks

In the quarterly Grain Stocks report, USDA pegged corn, soybean, and wheat grains stocks totals in all positions higher year-over-year. The expectation was also more than the trade expected.

Winter Wheat Seedings

In the Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report, USDA estimated 2026 winter wheat planted acres were slightly lower year-over-year but above trade expectations.