3 Big Things Today, Oct. 17, 2025
- Media Logic Radio
- Oct 17
- 3 min read
Grains and soybeans traded higher overnight; ethanol output surges to the highest level in five weeks.
By Tony Dreibus Published on October 17, 2025
1. Grain, Soybean Futures Higher in Overnight Trading
Grain and soybean futures were higher overnight on technical buying and concerns that yields may not be as lofty as once thought.
Dry weather the past month may have lopped some bushels off expected yield in several growing areas.
About 38% of an 11-state region that includes Iowa and Illinois — the largest producers of both corn and beans in the U.S. — was suffering from drought this week, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
While that’s down a percentage point on a weekly basis, it’s up from 4.3% just three months earlier, the monitor said.
About 44% of the corn crop was harvested as of Sunday, according to a Reuters poll. Roughly 58% of U.S. soybeans were in the bin, the survey said.
Weekly crop progress reports from USDA are not available during the ongoing government shutdown, which has entered a third week.
Producers and other market-watchers have expressed concerns that the dry weather in recent weeks has curbed yield for both corn and beans in some areas.
Corn futures rose 2½¢ to $4.24¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade.
Soybean futures for November delivery gained 3¢ to $10.31½ a bushel. Soy meal added $2.80 to $279.70 a short ton and soybean oil futures dropped 0.46¢ to 50.41¢ a pound.
Wheat futures for December delivery were up 1¼¢ to $5.03 3/4 a bushel, and Kansas City futures rose 2¼¢ to $4.91 a bushel.
2. Ethanol Production Jumps to Five-Week High
Ethanol output rose to the highest level in five weeks while inventories declined, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.
Production of the biofuel increased modestly to an average of 1.074 million barrels per day in the week that ended on Oct. 10, the agency said.
That’s up from 1.071 million barrels the previous week and the highest since Sept. 5.
Output in the Gulf Coast region rose to an average of 23,000 barrels a day from 22,000 a week earlier, and
East Coast production jumped to 10,000 barrels from 7,000 barrels, EIA said.
Rocky Mountain output increased to 10,000 barrels a day, on average, from 8,000 the week prior.
In the Midwest, by far the biggest producing region, production fell by a thousand barrels to 1.024 million last week, EIA said.
West Coast production was also down, falling to 8,000 barrels a day from 9,000 barrels the week prior.
Ethanol stocks, meanwhile, dropped to 22.628 million barrels in the week through Oct. 10. That’s down from 22.72 million barrels seven days earlier and the lowest level for inventories in a month, EIA said in its report.
3. Thunderstorms Possible in the U.S. Southern Plains
Thunderstorms are possible in parts of the southern Plains, according to the National Weather Service, where producers are planting winter wheat.
The storms, which have only a small chance of turning severe, are expected in the eastern Oklahoma and Texas panhandles, the agency said.
Cold weather is forecast for the area on Saturday night when temperatures drop into the mid-30s.
“A cold front is expected to move across Saturday afternoon into the evening with much colder air moving in behind the front,” NWS said. “This will lead to the coldest overnight lows of this fall so far, with the entire area dropping into the mid-40s and with at least half the area potentially in the 30s.”
Chilly weather is also expected in much of central and western Nebraska this week as temperatures fall into the upper 20s and low 30s, the agency said.
Widespread frost is expected in the region on Sunday morning, NWS said.
