Soybean and grain futures were higher on trade optimism; ethanol production surges to four-month high.

By Tony Dreibus Updated on October 23, 2025

1. Soybean, Grain Futures Rise on Trade Optimism

Soybean and grain futures were higher overnight after reports showing Japan is preparing a trade package for the U.S. that involves buying soybeans and other products, and on continued optimism about trade with China. 

Japan will allegedly offer to purchase U.S. soybeans and pickup trucks as part of a trade package, Reuters reported, citing two sources familiar with the matter. 

New Premier Sane Takaichi’s government will present the trade deal to President Donald Trump during talks next week, the report said. 

Also boosting prices overnight is continued optimism over trade talks with China. 

Trump said yesterday that he expects to reach an agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping when the two meet on the sidelines of an economic forum in South Korea next week. 

The meeting between the presidents of the world’s two largest economies has been the subject of some speculation after Trump has said more than once that it may not happen. 

Still, the meeting appears to be on as Trump said yesterday he plans to talk to Xi about soybeans and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine when the two meet next week.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are scheduled to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on Friday. 

Soybean futures for November delivery rose 5¾¢ to $10.55¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of

Trade. Soymeal fell $1 to $289.20 a short ton and soybean oil futures gained 0.74¢ to 50.81¢ a pound. 

Corn futures added 1¾¢ to $4.24¾ a bushel. 

Wheat futures for December delivery gained ¾¢ to $5.04 1/2 a bushel, and Kansas City futures dropped 2¢ to $4.90 1/2 a bushel. 

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2. Ethanol Production Surges to Four-Month High

Ethanol output jumped to the highest level in more than four months while inventories plunged, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. 

Production in the seven days that ended on Oct. 17 averaged 1.112 million barrels a day, the agency said. That’s up from 1.074 million barrels a week earlier and the highest since June 6. 

In the Midwest, by far the largest producing region, output surged to 1.051 million barrels per day, on average, from 1.024 million the week prior, EIA said. 

Gulf Coast production jumped to 30,000 barrels a day from 23,000 barrels the previous week, and East Coast output increased to an average of 12,000 barrels from 10,000 per day. 

Rocky Mountain output was steady at 10,000 barrels and West Coast production was unchanged at 8,000 barrels a day, on average, the agency said. 

Ethanol inventories last week dropped to 21.919 million barrels. That’s down from 22.628 million the previous week and the smallest since Oct. 25, EIA said in its report. 

3. Freeze, Frost Forecast For Large Chunk of the Midwest

Freeze warnings and frost advisories remain in effect this morning for a large chunk of the Corn Belt stretching from northwestern Kansas to the Eastern Seaboard, according to National Weather Service maps. 

Temperatures in southern Nebraska were expected to fall to around 28°F overnight, while in central Iowa values were forecast to drop as low as 26°F, the agency said in a report early this morning. 

Along the central Illinois-Indiana border temperatures declined to around 27°F. 

More chilly weather is on the way to central Illinois and Indiana as another freeze warning will take effect tonight and last into tomorrow morning, NWS said. 

Freeze warnings have also been issued for the overnight hours into Friday for parts of east-central and southeastern Indiana, the agency said. 

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