Is Weather the Only Hope for Higher Corn and Soybean Prices?
- Media Logic Radio
- 3 hours ago
- 5 min read
Record corn supplies and massive global soybean stocks leave weather as a key price driver. Markets analyst Naomi Blohm offers insight into marketing grain in 2026.
By Naomi Blohm | Published on January 29, 2026
A surprise bearish January USDA WASDE report has weighed on corn and soybean futures. While there has been some modest price recovery since the Jan. 12 report, the perception of abundant U.S. and global supplies of soybeans and corn may keep prices in check for the short term.
Record Soybean Carryout
In the January WASDE report, USDA increased planted soybean acres to 81.2 million acres, up from 81.1 in December's report. Yield was unchanged at 53 bushels per acre. That means total production for the 2025/2026 crop year is now pegged at 4.262 billion bushels, up from 4.253 billion in the December WASDE.
Demand for soybean exports was reduced to 1.575 billion bushels, while demand for crush was increased to 2.570 billion bushels. Ultimately, U.S. ending stocks for soybeans are now pegged at 350 million bushels, up from 290 billion in December.
Looking at global estimates, USDA increased the potential size of the Brazil soybean crop to 178 million metric tons (mmt), an increase of 3 mmt. The Argentina crop is marked at 48.50. Between ample U.S. and South American supplies, global carryout for soybeans was increased to 124.41 mmt, up from 122.37 mmt. It is a record large carryout amount.
Record Corn Crop Expected
Corn received negative news on the production side. Between an increase in harvested acres to 91.3 million and a higher than expected yield forecast of 186.5 bushels per acre, estimates for the 2025/2026 crop year are now pegged at a record 17.02 billion bushels.
Thankfully, demand for corn continues to remain strong in all categories.
Total domestic use is forecast at 13.17 billion bushels, up 90 million from last month.
On the demand side, feed and residual use came in at 6.2 billion bushels, up 100 million bushels from December.
Food, seed, residual use, and industrial use is projected at 6.97 billion bushels, down a modest 10 million bushels from December.
Ethanol use is projected to be unchanged at 5.6 billion bushels.
Export demand remains stellar as well. U.S. corn exports are pegged at a record 3.2 billion bushels, unchanged from December, with total demand for U.S. corn marked at 16.37 billion bushels.
Despite strong demand, however, the production increase more than offset the demand increase. This pushed ending stocks for the 2025/2026 corn crop up to 2.227 billion bushels, an increase of 198 million bushels from last month. Trade had been expecting a reduction of ending stocks.
What Could Boost Prices?
So, where do we go from here? With this bearish perception of large U.S. and global supplies, is there any hope of a price increase in 2026?
The blunt answer is that it depends on the weather. A weather issue creating a hiccup in production in South America in the coming months or a summer weather event in the Northern Hemisphere could spur a potentially meaningful price rally.
Demand is strong for corn and soybeans, but increasing it could raise prices. Ethanol is one possibility.
Conversations continue to swirl around congressional approval of year-round E15. Even a modest increase in the national blend rate could have a measurable impact. According to the National Corn Growers Association, “A 1% increase in the average ethanol blend rate would add 1.36 billion gallons of ethanol, equal to about 486 million bushels of corn. A 5% increase, to move from E10 to E15, would translate to 6.8 billion gallons of ethanol, or roughly 2.4 billion bushels of corn a year.”
Some in the industry are saying blending mandates could be increased yet this quarter, based on suggestions the administration will finalize 2026 biofuel blending quotas by early March. EPA is believed to be considering a bio-based diesel blending quota between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons, which is up from 3.35 billion in 2025 but less than the previously proposed total of 5.6 billion. Still, if approved, it would help improve demand.
Marketing Strategy Conundrum
Producers who have unpriced grain in the bin are frustrated by the abundant supplies of corn and soybeans projected in the January WASDE report. With bills due, storage costs, and high interest rates, is it best to sell grain in the bin sooner rather than later?
It’s a conundrum. If you make a cash sale and there’s a surprise bullish factor that supports prices after the grain is sold, you miss out on the price rally. On the other hand, if you purchase call options on those bushels, then you will have re-ownership and can participate in a price rally. If those options have value, they can be sold or converted into a long futures position.
Of course, any marketing strategy requires management and should be discussed thoroughly with your advisor. Make sure you’re implementing marketing strategies that best fit your risk tolerance. Take time now to map out the potential scenarios for the coming months, considering factors that could make new price highs or cause a downward slide. Marketing is how you get paid for your hard work.
If you have questions, you can reach Naomi at naomi@totalfarmmarketing.com or visit totalfarmmarketing.com for more information.
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Article: SUCCESSFUL FARMING, JANUARY 30, 2026
