3 Big Things Today, Oct. 9, 2025
- Media Logic Radio
- Oct 9
- 3 min read
Soybean futures were lower in overnight trading; ethanol output jumped to a one-month high.
By Tony Dreibus Updated on October 9, 2025
1. Soybean Futures Decline in Overnight Trading
Soybean futures were lower in overnight trading, as the U.S. remains no closer to a trade deal with China while Brazilian exports are forecast to hit a record high.
Prior to the government shutdown Oct. 1, China hadn’t purchased any new-crop beans from the U.S.
President Donald Trump said he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of the month on the sidelines of an economic forum.
Brazilian soybean exports, meanwhile, are expected to hit a record 102.2 million metric tons through the end of October, exporter group Anec said yesterday, as China shuns U.S. supplies amid the countries’ ongoing tariff war.
Producers are also waiting to see what the administration offers in terms of an aid package to offset losses caused by large crops and lackluster sales as the trade war drags on.
The administration had planned to unfurl its aid package for farmers, but its release has reportedly been delayed by the ongoing government shutdown, which has now entered its second week.
Harvest pressure also weighed on prices overnight, as producers continue to collect crops.
Soybean futures for November delivery fell 4¾¢ to $10.24¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal lost $1.20 to $276.80 a short ton, and soybean oil futures dropped 0.07¢ to 51.41¢ a pound.
Corn futures fell 1¼¢ to $4.20¾ a bushel.
Wheat futures for December delivery rose 2½¢ to $5.09¾ a bushel, and Kansas City futures were up 2½¢ to $4.95¾ a bushel.
2. Ethanol Production Surges to Highest in a Month
Ethanol output jumped to the highest level in a month last week, while inventories declined modestly, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Production of the biofuel rose to an average of 1.071 million barrels in the seven days that ended Oct. 3, the U.S. government agency said in a report yesterday.
On its website, the agency said it will continue normal publication of reports and data collection until further notice. That is in contrast to USDA reports that have been put on hold or canceled until the government shutdown ends.
In the Midwest, by far the biggest producer of ethanol, production averaged 1.025 million barrels a day, up from 940,000 the previous week, the EIA said. That was the lone gainer, as all other regions saw week-to-week declines.
Gulf Coast output was down to 22,000 barrels from 26,000 a day a week earlier and West Coast production dropped to 9,000 barrels from 10,000 the week prior, the agency reported.
Rocky Mountain output dropped by a thousand barrels to 8,000 last week and East Coast production was down by 3,000 barrels to 7,000, the government said.
Ethanol stockpiles in the seven days through Oct. 3, meanwhile, fell to 22.720 million barrels from 22.764 million a week earlier, EIA said. That’s the smallest level for inventories in three weeks.
3. Dry Weather, Storms Expected in Parts of Iowa
Dry weather this afternoon is expected to give way to storms overnight in parts of Iowa, the National Weather Service (NWS) said in a report early this morning.
“Elevated fire weather conditions are possible in isolated areas of cropland over northwestern Iowa this afternoon,” the agency said.
Storms later tonight likely won’t turn severe but a strong storm is possible, the NWS said.
More storms will roll through the area tomorrow morning, also with a low chance of severe weather, the NWS said.
Freeze warnings and frost advisories have been issued for much of Michigan and counties in northern Indiana and Ohio.
Temperatures in central Michigan fell into the mid-20s overnight. The freeze warnings will remain in effect until 9 a.m., the agency said.
