3 Big Things Today, Oct. 7, 2025
- Media Logic Radio
- Oct 7
- 3 min read
Soybean futures modestly higher overnight; AGCO tempers expectations for moderate growth.
By Tony Dreibus Published on October 7, 2025
1. Soybean Futures Moderately Higher Overnight
Soybean futures were modestly higher overnight, while corn and wheat were little changed, as the U.S. government shutdown continues, and traders await an announcement on the size of the proposed farm aid package.
Two proposals to restart the government — one from each side of the aisle — failed last night, meaning the shutdown is likely to reach a seventh day.
Reports from the USDA covering export sales, crop progress, and several others have been nixed during the shutdown, leaving farmers and traders uncertain about how to move forward.
Producers and other market watchers are also awaiting an announcement on what type of aid package will be released. A bailout proposal is expected to be released sometime this week, possibly today, that may be worth as much as $15 billion.
Ag prices have been hurt by trade concerns amid an ongoing tariff war with China and several other countries, as well as large expected harvests globally.
China still hasn’t purchased any new-crop beans, and the harvest continues to roll on.
Soybean production in the U.S. is now forecast at 4.301 billion bushels on yield of 53.5 bushels per acre (bpa), up from the previous outlook for 4.292 billion bushels on yield of 53.6 bpa, the USDA said in a report last month.
Corn production is now pegged at 16.814 billion bushels on yield of 186.7 bpa; both would be records.
Soybean futures for November delivery gained 3¼¢ to $10.21 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal fell 50¢ to $276.60 a short ton, and soybean oil futures gained 0.4¢ to 50.78¢ a pound.
Corn futures added ¾¢ to $4.22½ a bushel.
Wheat futures for December delivery rose 1¼¢ to $5.14 a bushel, and Kansas City futures were up 1½¢ to $4.97 a bushel.
2. AGCO Tempers Expectations for Moderate Growth
AGCO, the maker of agricultural equipment including tractors, combines, and sprayers, tempered forecasts for moderate growth next year amid mixed regional outlooks, Oppenheimer analysts said in a note to clients.
Conditions in the European Union are “modestly positive,” while the North American outlook has weakened, the analysts said. The forecast for South America is more uncertain.
AGCO recently held its tech day and featured its “crown jewel” Fendt brand, with a premium cab experience, a unique continuously variable transmission, and other technologies aimed at improving farmer profitability.
The company stands to benefit from a broad geographic footprint which, along with a $1 billion share buyback program, will provide a somewhat favorable backdrop, Oppenheimer said.
“One of the aspects we find unique to AGCO tech days are its focus on technology development that supports farm profitability,” the analysts said. “As a rule, AGCO targets technologies with a one- to two-year payback and believes it can capture half of value creation.”
3. Freeze Expected From North Dakota to Wisconsin
Freeze warning have been issued for much of North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, according to National Weather Service (NWS) maps.
Temperatures in North Dakota and counties in Minnesota fell to as low as 24°F in overnight trading, the agency said. Values in northern Wisconsin dropped to around 30°F.
The freeze warnings are expected to end around 9 a.m. local time.
Rainfall is expected in parts of northern and western Missouri this afternoon, the agency said. The precipitation is forecast to last into early tomorrow morning.
The rain will likely shift eastward into tomorrow morning before dissipating by midday tomorrow, the NWS said.
